Mind Uncharted Explore. Discover. Learn.
CIA Director Bill Burns on the Role of Intelligence in a Technological Revolution
In his recent speech titled “A World Transformed and the Role of Intelligence,” CIA Director Bill Burns highlighted the pivotal role intelligence plays in the current “plastic moment” in history. While he discussed various challenges posed by Russia and China, his most revealing point focused on how the intense disruption caused by new technologies is perhaps the most impactful and wide-ranging shock to the system today. Burns went as far as to characterize this moment as a “revolution in technology more profound than the industrial revolution or the dawn of the nuclear age.”
Technological Revolution and its Impact on the Intelligence Community
Undeniably, rapid technological advancements are reshaping every aspect of our lives, work, and even warfare. Both the United States and China are engaging in a race to lead in various fields such as space tech, biotech, quantum tech, and many others. These technologies have the potential to create life-saving medicine, climate solutions, but also life-ending bioweapons and AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems.
Challenges Faced by the Intelligence Community
The intelligence community is particularly affected by this technological revolution in three earth-shaking ways.
Shift from Government to Industry for Innovation
Traditionally, the intelligence community has been at the forefront of technological innovation, providing insights into upcoming advancements. However, the vast majority of innovation now occurs outside of government. While this is not necessarily a negative development, it poses challenges for the intelligence community, which struggles to find the right balance between protecting secrets and collaborating with the private sector. Embracing a lean and agile intelligence community with a wide industrial base is crucial to leverage external innovation effectively.
Strategic Surprise and the Need for Adaptation
The rapid pace of technological innovation requires the intelligence community to work tirelessly to avoid strategic surprises. Analysts and operators must decipher small signs to identify potential threats from competitors’ technological advancements. For instance, financial technology developments could undermine the effectiveness of financial sanctions. The intelligence community is beginning to adapt to these challenges, with the CIA establishing a mission center focused on technology and transnational challenges. Increased exchange with the private sector is necessary to access outside talent and resources.
Reimagining Intelligence Craft and Gathering Information
The intelligence community must reimagine how it approaches emerging technologies, moving from concept to creation to implementation at scale. Incorporating open-source intelligence, cloud computing, and AI could revolutionize intelligence operations. However, this requires bold steps, as well as addressing cultural, security, and policy considerations. Additionally, rapidly evolving technologies make clandestine information gathering increasingly difficult, with ubiquitous technical surveillance presenting challenges for human operations and necessitating new approaches in espionage tradecraft.
Recommendations for a Modern Intelligence Community
To meet these challenges and successfully compete with China, the intelligence community must embrace smart technology policies. Implementing recommendations from organizations like the Center for Strategic and International Studies can pave the way for a modern, capable, and cutting-edge technology ecosystem. The intelligence community needs to recognize the urgency, discard outdated practices, and embrace industry collaboration. This bold approach coupled with humility will enable the intelligence community to navigate this revolutionary moment.
Conclusion
Emily Harding, the Deputy Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasizes the need for the intelligence community to rise to the occasion presented by the current technological revolution. By reimagining intelligence practices, embracing industry collaboration, and implementing smart technology policies, the intelligence community can harness the potential of emerging technologies and serve as a crucial force in shaping the future.
